There are typical two ways in which I generate article ideas: I'll either be motivated by intuition or curiosity and see if the data leads anywhere, or I'll come across something that strikes me as so counterintuitive or peculiar that I feel motivated to explore in more depth.
Last week, I found myself browsing through demographic data and was amazed to discover the anomalous trend of West Virginia. Unlike many states which have continued to see their populations increase or have peaked at some point during the 21st century, West Virginia's population peaked at a little over 2,000,000 in 1950. After looking through census records more thoroughly I discovered that, of the fifty states in the United States, only West Virginia has seen its population decrease since 1950.
Below is a table comparing the populations of West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and the United States over time. While the choice of these additional states for comparison is somewhat arbitrary, I thought they would be fruitful in juxtaposition due to either economic or geographic similarities. From 1900 to 1950, West Virginia population ballooned from 958,800 to 2,005,552, an increase of 109.17%. Looking at the Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and the United States, West Virginia significantly outpaces their rates of growth over that same period. From 1950 to 2023, West Virginia saw its population fall from 2,005,552 to 1,770,071, a decrease of 11.74%. Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania all saw their populations increase over that same period, but to a much lesser degree than the national trend.
To understand the factors contributing to the population decrease in West Virginia, the remainder of this article will delve into both national and local economic trends as well as geographical influences.
The Decline of Coal Country: 1950-1970
The demand for coal and steel due to World War II dramatically increased coal employment and coal production in the 1940's, leading to an influx of Americans flooding into West Virginia in search of good paying jobs. Following the end of the war, not only did the national demand for coal and steel alter, but mechanization further threatened the miners' employment.
Around 1950, a machine known as the continuous miner consolidated the basic steps in the mining process into one machine operation, radically reducing the labor force required to supply demand. While miners resisted mechanization, the United Mine Workers of America representing West Virginia miners negotiated an agreement with mine operators which accepted a reduction in the number of workers in the mines while ensuring that the increased productivity brought about by mechanization would result in higher pay and shorter working hours for the miners who were still employed.
The combination of automation and changing economic conditions dramatically altered West Virginia coal employment, dropping from 119,568 in 1950 to 48,696 in 1960, a decrease of 59.27%. At the same time, coal production in West Virginia stayed relatively steady, not peaking until nearly 50 years after coal employment peaked in 1948. Continued technological improvements diminished the reliance on labor while dramatically improving the productivity of labor, leading to a growing divide between employment and productivity.
This dramatic drop in coal employment coincided with a stark decrease in West Virginia's population. From 1950 to 1960, the population of West Virginia decreased by over 150,000, representing a 7.62% decrease in population over that short span.
Further investigation into census data only accentuates the role that shifting economic conditions played in shrinking West Virginia's population. From 1950 onwards, I was able to find West Virginia's annual birth and death statistics. Since the change in population is defined by births - deaths + net migration, I was able to tediously calculate net migration from 1950 to the present. While looking at net migration from 1900 to 1950 would further accentuate the role economic immigration played in shaping West Virginia's population, I was unfortunately unable to find vitality statistics before 1950.
From 1951 to 1960, an astounding 437,260 more people left West Virginia than migrated to it. From 1961 to 1970 that number was 262,469, meaning that from 1951 to 1970 West Virginia's net migration was -699,729. A high birth rate which far outpaced deaths saved West Virginia from complete demographic despair.
Resurgence and Recession: 1970-2000
The energy crises of the 1970's brought about a resurgence in coal mining, contributing to an uptick in the state's population. Coal employment increased 22.63% from 45,261 in 1970 to 55,502 in 1980. Similarly, the 1970's saw West Virginia's population increase by 205,407, with net migration accounting for more than half of the change in population.
This increase in both coal employment and West Virginia's population proved short-lived, as the global recession during the 1980's, coupled with further automation and economic restructuring in the state's major manufacturing and coal mining sectors saw coal employment nearly halve to 28,876 and population fall by 156,167 to 1,792,481 by 1990. Again, much of the decline in population was driven by migration, with the decade seeing a net-migration of
-210,712.
While coal employment continued to drop, nearly halving by the millennium to 14,281, coal production increased, peaking at about 182 million tons in 1997. It's difficult to overstate the role automation played in shaping West Virginia's coal industry and demographics in the second half of the 20th century. In 1948, the peak of coal employment in West Virginia, 125,669 miners were employed and 168.5 million tons of coal were produced, amounting to 1,340.8 tons per person. In 1997, the peak of West Virginia coal production, 18,165 miners were employed and 182 millions tons of coal were produced, amounting to 10,019.3 tons per persons. It is not so much that the coal industry in West Virginia diminished, but rather automation fundamentally changed the reliance on labor, profoundly impacting the social and economic landscape of the state.
An Aging Population: 2000-Present Day
The 21st century has seen West Virginia have positive, though not substantial, net migration. While West Virginia has seemingly addressed the demographic problem which proved most consequential to its dramatic population decline in the latter half of the 20th century, a new, and perhaps even more consequential problem has emerged. From 2001 to 2020 West Virginia had 403,910 births compared to 439,736 deaths, meaning that for the first time since vitality statistics have been available, West Virginia's deaths are outpacing births. Even with a positive net migration over that same period, West Virginia's population declined by 23,557 from 2001 to 2020.
The problem is more evident when looking at West Virginia's age distribution. A population pyramid is a graphical representation that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population. The shape of the pyramid can offer insight into the growth rate of the population. A pyramid with a broad base and a narrow top suggests a growing population, as there are many young people (indicating a high birth rate) and fewer elderly. A more uniform shape suggests a stable population, and a pyramid with a narrow base and broad top suggests a declining population. Looking at West Virginia's population pyramid, a myriad of problems become visible. West Virginia's pyramid is broadest at 60-64 years, and grows somewhat consistently narrower as you decrease by age.
Additional demographic statistics further underscore West Virginia's population issues. The median age in West Virginia is 42.9, nearly 4 years higher than the national average; 21.2% of West Virginians are 65 years and older, significantly higher than the national average of 17.3%; and the total fertility rate (TFR) in West Virginia sat 1.65 in 2021, far below the replacement rate level of 2.1.
As West Virginia's population is aging and its birth rate is declining, the state has also dealt with an alarming overdose crisis. West Virginia's drug overdose death rate of 90.9 per 100,000 is the highest rate by a substantial margin and nearly three times higher than the national average. There is much more to say about the history of the opioid crisis and ways in which companies such as Purdue Pharma targeted OxyContin to West Virginia residents and particularly miners, but that is a larger discussion which isn't particularly relevant to the scope of this article. Regardless, drug overdoses and additional "deaths of despair" have further exacerbated West Virginia's 21st century population crisis.
Urbanization isn't Destiny
As West Virginia's population decline was in large part defined by the changing labor and economic conditions of the coal industry, a fair question emerges: why didn't West Virginia adequately adapt? To ask an even clearer question, why didn't West Virginia urbanize?
West Virginia continues to be a predominantly rural state with only 44.6% of the population living in urban areas and the majority of its cities being relatively small. Charleston, the largest city in the state, had a population of 47,129 in 2022. In 1900 the rural population of West Virginia was 86.9%, compared to the national average of 60.4%. Despite being overwhelmingly rural, there were still 10 other states with a higher percentage of rural residents. In 2020, West Virginia's urban population was only 44.6%, significantly lower than the national average of 80%, and only Maine and Vermont had a higher proportion of rural residents than West Virginia.
There are numerous explanations for why West Virginia bucked the national trend and failed to urbanize like most of the country. West Virginia is largely mountainous, being part of the Appalachian Mountain range. This rugged terrain makes it difficult to develop large urban areas. Additionally, West Virginia's economy, as noted extensively, has been heavily reliant on coal mining and other extractive. industries. These industries are often location in rural areas, and thus don't necessarily promote urbanization. Even as coal employment has decreased, coal and other extractive industries continue to be integral sectors of West Virginia's economy. In 2017, coal mining and coal fired electric power generated approximately $12.9 billion in total economic activity in West Virginia, accounting for 16.8% of the state's GDP. West Virginia historical reliance on coal has proved an impediment to economic diversification, and thus hasn't incentivized urbanization.
Conclusion
There feels like no proper way to end this article. I want to leave you all with some positive piece of data that offers some glimmer of optimism. Frankly, that feels disingenuous. West Virginia's history cannot be divorced from the history of coal. It drove its dramatic population increase in the first half of the 20th century, and it caused the mass migration out of the state in the latter part of the century. Many of West Virginia's modern crises, socially and economically, stem from the legacy of coal and the state's over-reliance on it. Coal is dying, and, to a much slower extent, so is West Virginia. As the once omnipresent force of coal fades away, something will have to fill that massive void. Maybe, the death of coal will bring about new life for West Virginia.